00:01
We're looking at the use of two antibiotics, and for part a, we want the probability of a cure for each treatment plan.
00:08
Let's start with plan one.
00:12
So i'll make it a three.
00:15
This is using antibiotic a, and we're going to have cure, not cured.
00:23
If it's cured, we don't have to do anything further.
00:26
If it's not cured, we have to apply antibiotic b.
00:29
And it can either be cured or not cured.
00:32
So what probabilities do we assign here? well, it cures 60 % of the time.
00:37
So this is 0 .6, this is 0 .4.
00:41
This cures 90 % of the time.
00:44
This is 0 .9.
00:45
This is 0 .1.
00:47
The probability of a cure, well, it's...
00:52
I'm just going to do the complement rule there.
00:55
Compliment rule is where you just do 1 minus the results you aren't looking at.
01:00
So i'll just do 1 minus no cure, which is 0 .4 times 0 .1.
01:08
Which leaves the pure as being 0 .9, 6.
01:12
You could also do 0 .6 plus 0 .4 times 0 .9.
01:16
You'd get the same result.
01:22
Plan 2, do another 3 diagram.
01:29
First applying b, and then if it doesn't work, applying it.
01:36
So this is 0 .9, 0 .1, 0 .6, 0 .4.
01:42
And unsurprisingly, it's the same probability of success.
01:47
1 minus 0 .1 times 0 .9.
01:50
0 .9 plus 0 .1 times 0 .36.
01:59
Okay, part b.
02:03
The expected cost per plan when you use each treatment.
02:07
So let's start with plan one...