00:01
So calculating the best case, worst case and expected monetary value of the cost based of the given scenarios, we can consider the costs and the probabilities associated with each of them.
00:12
So for scenario a, the cost is 563 ,000 with a delay of 28 days, a probability of 1 because it's certain.
00:23
B, cost savings is 30 ,000, the scheduled savings is 25, the probability is 0 .15.
00:31
And for c, you've got the cost saving of 52 ,500, scheduled saving is 7 days and probability of 1 because it's certain.
00:43
And for d, the rework cost is 9 ,000 with a 16 -day delay and a probability of 0 .25.
00:54
So here we can calculate the emv for each of the scenarios.
00:58
So the emv is equal to the probability multiplied by the value, subtract the cost.
01:07
So looking at a, it's 1 multiplied by 0, subtract 5, 6, 3, 0, 0, 0, which is minus half a million.
01:20
Emv for b is 0 .15 multiplied by 30 ,000, take away 0, which gives us 4 ,500.
01:33
And for c, it's 1 multiplied by 52 ,500, subtract 0...