A marginal abatement cost, and expects the equilibrium price of a permit to be $40. However, the government observes the equilibrium price of a permit to be $33. So it suggests that the government should decrease its expectation of the true abatement cost.
According to the Weitzman rule, when the marginal cost of abatement is uncertain, tax and cap-and-trade can lead to different outcomes. Specifically, if the marginal cost curve is relatively steep, tax is preferred because it creates a smaller deadweight loss. However, if that curve is relatively flat, the opposite is true.