A marketing team needs to complete a marketing campaign project which involves six activities. The network
diagram for the project is presented below.
A
B
Start
End
C
D
E
F
The team has the following partially completed estimates of means and standard deviations. Some are at the
activity level, for example, activity A and activity B, and others are at the path level, for example, Path C-D and
Path E-F. For activities A and B, since the expected activity times and their variances are given, the optimistic,
most likely, and pessimistic times for each task are not needed to answer the questions.
Activity
to
tm
tp te
to+4tm+tp
ĻĀ² =
(tp-to) 2
6
36
A
XX
XX
XX
18
40/36
B
XX
XX
XX
16
25/36
Expected length of path C-D: 22;
Standard deviation of path C-D: 2.75
Expected length of path E-F: 33;
Standard deviation of path E-F: 4.5
Answer the following "probability" questions with a value between 0 and 1. DO NOT convert to
percentage. [round the standard deviation of path A-B to four decimal places before calculating the z
value]
(1) What is the probability of completing the project within 37 weeks?
(2) What is the probability of completing Path E-F within 32 weeks?
(3) What is the probability of NOT completing Path C-D within 25 weeks?
(four decimal places)
(four decimal places)
(four decimal places)