A new disease has been observed and experts believe that 1...

A new disease has been observed, and experts believe that 1% of the population have it. A test is developed that has 95% true positive rate and 1% false positive rate. If Alice tests positive and the experts are right on the population prevalence, what is the probability that Alice has the disease (up to 2 decimal places)?

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00:01 Hi, i'm david and i'm here to have you answer your question.

00:04 Now let me bring up your question here.

00:07 In the question we're going to summarize the question by the three diagram.

00:13 Now let me draw the picture here.

00:17 We will want to have the disease d and not d will be the d complement and then we will have the new disease will have the one percent of the population so means that the disease will be the 1 % percent with 0 .0 .0 1 and the common one didn't have the disease with the 0 .99 and then when we do the test the test can result in the positive and negative for each person positive and negative.

00:57 Now if the person has the disease and then the test will be true positive with the 95%.

01:06 It means that will be 0 .95 here.

01:09 And the common element will be 0 .05.

01:12 And if the person doesn't have the disease, it will be 1 % fails, pontstile.

01:19 So doesn't have the disease and then it will be negative, doesn't have the disease, but will still be fair, positive will be the 0 .01 here.

01:29 And then the common will be 0 .99.

01:32 That will be the summary of the question.

01:36 Now you want to find the probability that we have the person if allat test positive.

01:47 So given that the 10 is positive and what is the probability then the allas will has the dz...

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