Question

A polling organization is conducting an analysis of sample results in order to make predictions on election night. Assuming a two-candidate election, if a specific candidate receives at least 55% of the vote in the sample, then that candidate will be forecast as the winner of the election. If you select a random sample of 100 voters: (a) What is the probability that a candidate will be forecast as the winner of thee lection when: (i) the true percentage of her vote is 50.1%? (ii) the true percentage of her vote is 60%? (iii) the true percentage of her vote is 49% (and she will actually lose the election)? (b) If the sample size is increased to 400 then what are your answers to Part (a)?(c) Give a brief discussion of the difference between the answers in Parts (a) and (b).

          A polling organization is conducting an analysis of sample
results in order to make predictions on election night. 
Assuming a two-candidate election, if a specific candidate receives
at least 55% of the vote in the sample, then that candidate will be
forecast as the winner of the election.  If you select a
random sample of 100 voters:
(a) What is the probability that a candidate will be
forecast  as  the  winner  of  thee
lection when:
(i) the true percentage of her vote is 50.1%?
(ii) the true percentage of her vote is 60%?
(iii) the true percentage of her vote is 49% (and she will
actually lose the election)?
(b) If the sample size is increased to 400 then what are your
answers to Part (a)?(c) Give a brief discussion of the difference
between the answers in Parts (a) and (b).

Added by Alfredo V.

Question

Please give Ace some feedback