00:01
Hi, i'm david and i'm here to help you answer your question.
00:04
Now let me bring up your question here.
00:07
In the question we're going to compute the expected value of the geometric distribution without the calculus.
00:15
Here we are given that the probability of success equal to p and then the probability of the failure equal to 1 minus p and we want to find the let x be the random number that counts the number of the trial necessary to obtain the first success.
00:42
So x will equal to the number of the trial needed to get the first success.
00:57
And then we will see x will follow by the geometric distribution.
01:02
And let me remind you that the problem predict of x equal to k, it will equal to 1 minus p power k minus k times now i want to find the e on the x without the calculus.
01:17
We can find this one using the conditional probability.
01:21
We have here given that the first trial, we will give us the success and then we have to times the probability of success and then plus the first trial it can be the feller and then we have to times the probability of the feller.
01:43
And now if we have the first one success and then this expectation exactly equal to 1 times the probability success equal to b...