Consider the following annual series on the number of fishing rods sold at an outdoor store in the last 6 months.
Months
Fishing rods (in 100's)
1
20
2
18
3
20
4
25
5
20
6
21
The 3-month moving average forecast for period 4 is:
18.33
18.67
24.33
19.33
25.20
The 3-month moving average forecast for period 7 is:
18.33
18.67
22.00
24.00
25.20
The Mean Square Error (MSE) for the 3-month moving average is:
15.63
11.19
18.06
33.56
144.44
Using a smoothing constant of 0.25, the exponential smoothing value to be used as forecasts for period 6 is:
20.73
20.79
20.97
22.60
23.45
Using a smoothing constant of 0.25, the exponential smoothing value to be used as forecasts for period 7 is:
20.97
22.60
22.94
20.79
24.52
Using a smoothing constant of 0.25, the Mean Square Error is:
1.14
15.63
1.38
6.83
144.44