Data smoothing is often used when doing Economic Analyses. Which option below is one way of smoothing data? Question 29 options: Using annual data for multiple years Using year-to-date data Using seasonally adjusted data Using quarterly data
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Data smoothing is a technique used to reduce noise and fluctuations in data to identify trends more clearly. Show more…
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The accompanying dataset provides data on monthly unemployment rates for a certain region over four years. Compare 3- and 12-month moving average forecasts using the MAD criterion. Which of the two models yields better results? Explain. Year Month Rate(%) 2010 Jan 7.8 2010 Feb 8.3 2010 Mar 8.7 2010 Apr 9.2 2010 May 9.4 2010 Jun 9.6 2010 Jul 9.4 2010 Aug 9.6 2010 Sep 9.7 2010 Oct 9.9 2010 Nov 9.9 2010 Dec 9.9 2011 Jan 9.9 2011 Feb 9.8 2011 Mar 9.9 2011 Apr 9.8 2011 May 9.6 2011 Jun 9.4 2011 Jul 9.5 2011 Aug 9.6 2011 Sep 9.5 2011 Oct 9.4 2011 Nov 9.9 2011 Dec 9.2 2012 Jan 9.1 2012 Feb 9.1 2012 Mar 8.7 2012 Apr 8.8 2012 May 9.1 2012 Jun 9.1 2012 Jul 9.1 2012 Aug 9.1 2012 Sep 8.8 2012 Oct 8.8 2012 Nov 8.7 2012 Dec 8.6 2013 Jan 8.4 2013 Feb 8.3 2013 Mar 8.3 2013 Apr 8.1 2013 May 8.4 2013 Jun 8.2 2013 Jul 8.1 2013 Aug 8.1 2013 Sep 7.6 2013 Oct 7.7 2013 Nov 7.8 2013 Dec 7.7 2013 Find the MAD for the 3-month moving average forecast. Find the MAD for the 12-month moving average forecast. Which of the two models yields better results? Explain. A. The 3-month moving average forecast yields better results because its MAD is greater than that of the 12-month moving average forecast. The 3-month model is more sensitive to longer term trends. B. The 12-month moving average forecast yields better results because its MAD is greater than that of the 3-month moving average forecast. The 12-month model is more sensitive to longer term trends. C. The 3-month moving average forecast yields better results because its MAD is smaller than that of the 12-month moving average forecast. The 3-month model is less sensitive to longer term trends. D. The 12-month moving average forecast yields better results because its MAD is smaller than that of the 3-month moving average forecast. The 12-month model is less sensitive to longer term trends. E. The quality of the results is about the same between the two models because the MAD of the 3-month forecast is equal to the MAD of the 12-month forecast.
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You have a monthly time series of toy sales, with an upward trend and obvious spikes in the last two months of each year. Which of the following will likely provide good forecasts? A. The moving averages method, provided that the span is at least 12. or B. Regression with time itself and dummy variables for 11 of the 12 months.
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Suppose you believe there is seasonal variation in a set of time-series data that is collected quarterly. Which procedure for removing random variation will also eliminate or "mask" the seasonal variation? Select one: a. A two-period centered moving average b. A three-period moving average c. Exponential smoothing with α=0.9 d. A seven-period moving average e. All of the above are unlikely to retain seasonal variation
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