(e) Use a smoothing constant of ? = 0.4 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 17 2 11 3 15 4 10 5 16 6 13 Does a smoothing constant of 0.2 or 0.4 appear to provide more accurate forecasts based on MSE? Explain. ? The exponential smoothing using ? = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the exponential smoothing using ? = 0.4. ? The exponential smoothing using ? = 0.4 provides a better forecast since it has a larger MSE than the exponential smoothing using ? = 0.2. ? The exponential smoothing using ? = 0.2 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential smoothing using ? = 0.4. ? The exponential smoothing using ? = 0.4 provides a better forecast since it has a smaller MSE than the exponential smoothing using ? = 0.2.
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4. Let's denote the smoothing constant as $\alpha$ and the time series values as $x_t$. The exponential smoothing forecast for week $t+1$ is given by: $$F_{t+1} = \alpha x_t + (1-\alpha)F_t$$ Show more…
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