Question

Example 5.1: Assessing Uncertainty at Bender Company • Bender company needs to meet the end of July deadline. Their work schedule is highly dependent on Company X, who provides materials to Bender. • What is the probability that Bender company can meet its deadline? • Two separate events are here: 1) the event that Bender meets its end-of-July deadline ? Let's call it A 2) the event that Bender receives the materials before deadline ? Let's call it B • Probabilities by cases: • The chances of getting the materials on time are estimated to be 2 out of 3. $P(B) = 2/3$ If Bender receives the required materials on time, the chances of meeting the deadline are estimated to be 3 out of 4. $P(A \text{ if } B \text{ happens}) = P(A|B) = 3/4$ If the company doesn't receive the materials on time, the chances of meeting the deadline are estimated to be 1 out of 5. $P(A \text{ if } B (X)) = P(A|B^c) = 1/5$

          Example 5.1: Assessing Uncertainty at Bender Company
• Bender company needs to meet the end of July deadline. Their work schedule
is highly dependent on Company X, who provides materials to Bender.
• What is the probability that Bender company can meet its deadline?
• Two separate events are here:
1) the event that Bender meets its end-of-July deadline ? Let's call it A
2) the event that Bender receives the materials before deadline ? Let's call it B
• Probabilities by cases:
• The chances of getting the materials on time are estimated to be 2 out of 3. $P(B) = 2/3$
If Bender receives the required materials on time, the chances of meeting the deadline
are estimated to be 3 out of 4.
$P(A \text{ if } B \text{ happens}) = P(A|B) = 3/4$
If the company doesn't receive the materials on time, the chances of meeting the
deadline are estimated to be 1 out of 5.
$P(A \text{ if } B (X)) = P(A|B^c) = 1/5$

Example 5.1: Assessing Uncertainty at Bender Company
• Bender company needs to meet the end of July deadline. Their work schedule
is highly dependent on Company X, who provides materials to Bender.
• What is the probability that Bender company can meet its deadline?
• Two separate events are here:
1) the event that Bender meets its end-of-July deadline ? Let's call it A
2) the event that Bender receives the materials before deadline ? Let's call it B
• Probabilities by cases:
• The chances of getting the materials on time are estimated to be 2 out of 3. P(B) = 2/3
If Bender receives the required materials on time, the chances of meeting the deadline
are estimated to be 3 out of 4.
P(A if B happens) = P(A|B) = 3/4
If the company doesn't receive the materials on time, the chances of meeting the
deadline are estimated to be 1 out of 5.
P(A if B (X)) = P(A|B^c) = 1/5

Added by Sarah V.

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