12.39 President's Job Rating. The headline read "President's Job Ratings Fall to Lowest Point of His Presidency." A Harris Poll taken April 5-10, 2005, of 1010 U.S. adults found that 444 of them approved of the way that President George W. Bush was doing his job. Find and interpret a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of all U.S. adults who, at the time, approved of President Bush. 12.40 Major Hurricanes. A major hurricane is a category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale. From the document "The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones From 1851 to 2004" (NOAA Technical Memorandum, NWS TPC-4, Updated 2005) by E. Blake et al., we found that of the 273 hurricanes affecting the continental United States, 92 were major. a. Based on these data, find and interpret a 90% confidence interval for the probability, p, that a hurricane affecting the continental United States will be a major hurricane. b. Discuss the possible problems with this analysis.
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In this case, p̂ = 92/273 ≈ 0.337. Show more…
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19. Hurricanes hit the United States often and hard, causing some loss of life and enormous economic costs. They are ranked in severity by the Saffir-Simpson scale, which ranges from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the worst. In some years, as many as three hurricanes that rate a Category 3 or higher hit the U.S. coastline. In other years, no hurricane of this severity hits the United States. The following table lists the number of years that had 0, 1, 2, 3, or more hurricanes of at least Category 3 in severity, over the 100 years of the 20th century (Blake et al. 2005): Number of hurricanes Category 3 or higher: 0, 1, 2, 3+ Number of years: 50, 39, 7, 4 What is the mean number of severe hurricanes to hit the United States per year? What model would describe the distribution of hurricanes per year, if they were to hit independently of each other and if the probability of a hurricane were the same in every year? Test the fit of the model from part (b) to the data.
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A major hurricane is a category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale. From the document "The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones From 1851 to 2004" (NOAA Technical Memorandum, NWS TPC-4, Updated 2005) by E. Blake et al., we found that of the 273 hurricanes affecting the continental United States, 92 were major. a. Based on these data, find and interpret a 90% confidence interval for the probability, p, that a hurricane affecting the continental United States will be a major hurricane. b. Discuss the possible problems with this analysis.
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