Let (Xn: n = 0,1,2,...) be a Markov chain with two states 1, 2 with the following one-step transition probability matrix:
state 1/4 3/4
1/2 1/2
What is the probability that in exactly two steps after starting at n = 0, the state is 2 for the FIRST TIME?
0 1/8
none of the other choices
3/16 0
4/4