Mistaken poll A local TV station conducted a “Pulse-Poll” about the upcoming mayoral election. Evening news viewers were invited to phone in their votes, with the results to be announced on the late-night news. Based on the phone calls, the station predicted that Amabo would win the election with 52% of the vote. They were wrong: Amabo lost, getting only 46% of the vote. Do you think the station’s faulty prediction is more likely to be a result of bias or sampling error? Explain.
Added by Michael D.
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The poll was conducted by a local TV station, which means the sample of people who participated in the poll might not be representative of the entire population of voters. This could lead to a biased sample. Show more…
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A local TV station conducted a "Pulse-Poll" about the upcoming mayoral election. Evening news viewers were invited to text in their votes, with the results being announced on the late-night news. Based on the texts, the station predicted that the current mayor would win the election with 52% of the vote. They were wrong and the mayor lost, getting only 46% of the vote. Do you think the station's faulty prediction is more likely to be a result of bias or sampling error? Explain.
Willis J.
Another mistaken poll Prior to the mayoral election discussed in Exercise 15, the newspaper also conducted a poll. The paper surveyed a random sample of registered voters stratified by political party, age, sex, and area of residence. This poll predicted that Amabo would win the election with 52% of the vote. The newspaper was wrong: Amabo lost, getting only 46% of the vote. Do you think the newspaper’s faulty prediction is more likely to be a result of bias or sampling error? Explain.
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