Quarter: 1,2,3,4
Year 1: 2,4,1,7
Year 2: 4,5,3,9
Year 3: 5,8,4,10
Answer all questions from picture in addition to:
E. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model you developed in part (d).
Do not round your interim computations and round your final answer to three decimal places.
Year 4 Quarter 1 Period 13 Ft = (blank)
Year 4 Quarter 2 Period 14 Ft = (blank)
Year 4 Quarter 3 Period 15 Ft = (blank)
Year 4 Quarter 4 PERIOD 16 FT = (blank)
F. Calculate the MSE for the regression models developed in parts (b) and (d).
If required, round your intermediate calculations and final answer to three decimal places.
Model Developed in part B
MSE= (blank)
Model Developed in part D
MSE = (blank)
Is the model you developed in part (b) or the model you developed in part (d) more effective?
The model developed in (part b or part d, choose one) is more effective because it has the (larger or smaller, pick one) MSE.
(b) Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data: Qtr1 = 1 if Quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if Quarter 2, 0 otherwise: Qtr3=1 if Quarter 3,0 otherwise.
If required, round your answers to three decimal places. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign even if there is a + sign before the blank (Example: -300). If the constant is "1" it must be entered in the box. Do not round intermediate calculation. 8.667+ -5Qtr1+ -3Qtr2 + -6Qtr3
If required, round your answers to three decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation.
Year
Quarter
Ft
4
1
4
2
4
3
4
4
(d) Use a multiple regression model to develop an equation to account for trend and seasonal effects in the data. Use the dummy variables you developed in part (b) to capture seasonal
If required, round your answers to three decimal places. For subtractive or negative numbers use a minus sign even if there is a + sign before the blank (Example: -300). Qtr1 + Qtr2 + Qtr3 +
(e) Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model you developed in part (d).
Do not round your interim computations and round your final answer to three decimal places.
Year Quarter Period
Ft
4
1
13
4
2
14