Question [2: Monte-Carlo risk analysis involving 150,000 simulations; the probability of new product making loss in its first year was estimated to be 0.108. Which of these enhancements would be likely to bring about the least improvement on the reliability of this estimate?
Increasing the number of simulations to 160,000
Including probability distribution for missing factor that has an effect on profit
Using correlations to model dependence relationships between the factors
Increasing the complexity of the underlying model so that it represents the way that profits are generated more accurately
Question [3: A tornado diagram can show:
The probability distribution for the payoffs of a decision
Whether one option exhibits stochastic dominance over another
The factors that have the greatest influence on the payoffs of the decision
The option or options which appear on the efficient frontier