Question five sales of article b 000 units qi q2 q3 q4 q...

QUESTION FIVE Sales of article B (’000 units) QI Q2 Q3 Q4 (Q = quarter) 2015 24.8 36.3 38.1 47.5 2016 31.2 42.3 43.4 55.9 2017 40.0 48.8 54.0 69.1 2018 54.7 57.8 60.3 68.9 (a) Look at the data. What sort of trend and seasonal pattern do you expect to emerge from the analysis of this data? (2 marks) (b) Derive a regression equation from the data and forecast the trend in sales for the four quarters of 2019 (2 marks) (c) Discuss the usefulness of this method of forecasting. (1 mark)

Transcript

00:01 Hello, let's have a look on the question.

00:02 So here we have the table showing that our sales of sales of 2015.

00:07 Hello, let's have a look on the question.

00:11 So here the table is representing the sales for 2015 16 17 and 18 for different quarters.

00:17 Now for the a part we need to find out what trend these sales are following so we can see that we can see that there is an upward trend upward trend along with seasonal pattern.

00:39 So in the table itself we can see that as we move on to the quarters for each year.

00:44 The sale is increasing in each quarter.

00:47 If you go from q1 to q2 the sale has increased then it has increased for q3 and the few q4 has the most sales now for the b part.

00:58 We need to find out the regression equation.

01:01 So first let's assume that x 1 is equal to 1 if quarter 1 or 0 otherwise, then we have x 2 is equal to 1 if quarter 2 or 0 otherwise and the last one is x 3 is equal to 1 if quarter 3 or 0 otherwise and the last variable would be t which is equal to quarter number from quarter number from 2015 quarter 1.

01:56 Now, we need to find out the regression output.

01:59 So you we can use excel because the data is very big so we can put the values in excel and find out the regression output.

02:05 So this is the regression output we get this is the regression output.

02:12 So this table represents the intercepts.

02:14 We have coefficient error t -stat and the p -value for quarter 1 quarters and have we have x 1 x 2 and x 3...

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