someone hands you a box of 24 chocolate covered candies, telling you that 14 are vanilla creams and the rest are peanut butter. you pick candies at random and discover the first 4 you eat are all vanilla consider result to be surprising if there is less than a 5% chance of observing it given your expectations. (a) If there really were 14 vanilla and 10 peanut butter candies in the box what is the probability that you would have picked 4 vanilla's in a row?
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After picking one vanilla candy, there are now 13 vanilla candies left out of a total of 23. So, the probability of picking a vanilla candy on the second try is 13/23. Similarly, the probability of picking a vanilla candy on the third try is 12/22, and on the Show more…
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Someone hands you a box of a dozen chocolate-covered candies, telling you that half are vanilla creams and the other half peanut butter. You pick candies at random and discover the first three you eat are all vanilla. a) If there really were 6 vanilla and 6 peanut butter can- dies in the box, what is the probability that you would have picked three vanillas in a row? b) Do you think there really might have been 6 of each? Explain. c) Would you continue to believe that half are vanilla if the fourth one you try is also vanilla? Explain.
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