00:01
For this exercise, we are told that 20 % of all homeowners in an earthquake -prone area of california are insured against earthquake damage.
00:09
So that means for any randomly selected individual from this area, the probability of insurance for earthquakes is 0 .2.
00:17
And we consider a random selection of four of these people.
00:21
The random variable x is defined as the number out of the four who are insured for earthquakes.
00:27
And for part a, we are asked to find the probability distribution of x.
00:32
The fastest way to do this is to recognize that x is a binomial random variable.
00:38
So here each of the four people in the sample can be thought of as bernoulli trials having two outcomes of interest, either have the insurance or not.
00:46
And since it's a random sample, their outcomes are independent.
00:50
And so the number of successes in a fixed number of independent bernoulli trials is a binomial random variable.
00:58
So here x is a binomial based on four trials and probability success.
01:03
Point 2, the probability function for the binomial random variable is generally given by this formula.
01:24
And so for this particular binomial random variable, the probability function is 4 choose x times 0 .2 to the exponent x times 0 .8 to the exponent n minus x.
01:41
And x can be any integer from 0 up to n, up to 4.
01:48
So this makes sense because if you think of x as the number of successes, or in this case capital s.
01:56
If we have x successes for any of the four individuals, the probability of having this insurance is 0 .2.
02:06
So there will be x factors of 0 .2.
02:10
For the remaining 4 minus x, it should actually be 4 minus x, not n.
02:18
For the remaining 4 minus x, the probability of these having, of not having the insurance is 0 .8.
02:28
So there's a factor of 0 .8 to the exponent, 4 minus x.
02:33
These two factors are the probability of having x successes and 4 minus x failures, or f.
02:42
The only other thing to consider is how many combinations exist.
02:47
The example in the question gave s f s s.
02:54
So here x equals 3.
02:55
We have three successes...