The details of the hard drive sales for the past 6 weeks are shown in the table below. The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects. You have been told to use 2 period weighted moving average estimation technique to help in forecasting the needs for next week. (k =2 with weights 0.8, 0.2) Week Units sold 1 88 2 44 3 54 4 65 5 72 6 85 You are being asked to help forecast for week 7, also been asked to consider forecast for week 3, absolute percentage error for week 3, mean square error (MS), and mean absolute deviation (MAD) for this dataset. For the given data using with 2 period weighted moving average estimation technique (k =2 with weights 0.8, 0.2), what is the value of the mean square error? A. 10.75 B. 115.61 C. 9.45 D. 89.30
Added by Robert G.
Close
Step 1
Using the weights 0.8 and 0.2, we get: Week 2 period weighted moving average 1 - 2 0.8(88) + 0.2(0) = 70.4 3 0.8(44) + 0.2(88) = 57.6 4 0.8(54) + 0.2(44) = 50.8 5 0.8(65) + 0.2(54) = 59.2 6 0.8(72) + 0.2(65) = 68.6 Show more…
Show all steps
Your feedback will help us improve your experience
Adi S and 95 other Physics 103 educators are ready to help you.
Ask a new question
Labs
Want to see this concept in action?
Explore this concept interactively to see how it behaves as you change inputs.
Key Concepts
Recommended Videos
Using the following data: Month Sales 1 105 2 135 3 120 4 105 5 90 6 120 7 145 8 140 9 100 10 80 11 100 For each of the following forecast methods, generate a forecast for Month 12 Sales along with MAE, MSE, and MAPE: 1. Naïve 2. Historical Average 3. 4-Week Moving Average 4. 4-Week Weighted Moving Average with the following weights: a. Most recent week: 7 b. 2nd most recent week: 5 c. 3rd most recent week: 3 d. 4th most recent week: 1 5. Exponential Smoothing with alpha = 0.3 6. Simple Linear Regression Which of the above methods (from 1 – 5) results in the best MAE? The best MSE? The best MAPE? In addition, use Goal Seek to determine the alpha for exponential smoothing that results in an MSE of 505.
Sri K.
Adi S.
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 16 14 16 11 17 14 (a) Choose the correct time series plot. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? (b) Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Value Forecast 1 16 2 14 3 16 4 11 5 17 6 14 MSE: The forecast for week 7: (c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Value Forecast 1 16 2 14 3 16 4 11 5 17 6 14 MSE: The forecast for week 7: (d) Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain. (e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.20. Use a two-decimal digit precision. alpha:
Aishwarya K.
Recommended Textbooks
University Physics with Modern Physics
Physics: Principles with Applications
Fundamentals of Physics
Transcript
Watch the video solution with this free unlock.
EMAIL
PASSWORD