00:01
So we're looking at heuristics and tendencies, which one is exemplified here.
00:06
So reggie will not go into the ocean as he's scared of shark attacks, and he says it's because he's seen a lot of news reports about them.
00:14
Is this the availability heuristic, the representative -nus heuristic, the tendency to ignore base rates, or the conjunction fallacy? so let's try to explain what these are.
00:28
And i'll start with c and d.
00:29
So the conjunction fallacy is the assumption that if you are given a specific condition, it's probably more likely than a general one.
00:40
So, for example, dying by brown bear versus dying of cancer.
00:49
Brown bear is more specific.
00:52
We could even say rabid brown bear.
00:53
And the fallacy would be, wow, that's very specific, that might be more likely, when clearly the more general term is more likely.
01:00
Here.
01:02
So that's the conjunction fallacy, but the specific is assumed more probable...