Question

The reliability of a particular skin test for tuberculosis (TB) is as follows: the sensitivity of the test is 0.9 (the test comes back positive 90% of the time if the subject has TB) and the specificity of the test is 0.94 (if the subject does not have TB, the test comes back negative 94% of the time). In a large population, only 0.3% (0.003) of the people have TB. A person is selected at random and given the test, which comes back positive. What is the probability that the person actually has TB? (Use a hypothetical 100,000 table.)

          The reliability of a particular skin test for tuberculosis (TB)
is as follows: the sensitivity of the test is 0.9 (the test comes
back positive 90% of the time if the subject has TB) and the
specificity of the test is 0.94 (if the subject does not have TB,
the test comes back negative 94% of the time).
In a large population, only 0.3% (0.003) of the people have TB.
A person is selected at random and given the test, which comes back
positive.
What is the probability that the person actually has TB? (Use a
hypothetical 100,000 table.)

Added by Jerry V.

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