A machine learning model is being used to detect fraudulent transactions in a banking system. Explain why recall might be a more important metric than precision in this context. Justify your answer with a real-world example of the consequences of false negatives versus false positives.
Added by Shelby M.
Step 1
Precision measures the proportion of predicted positive cases that were actually positive. In the context of fraud detection, recall focuses on identifying as many fraudulent transactions as possible, while precision focuses on the accuracy of those identified Show more…
Show all steps
Your feedback will help us improve your experience
Madhur L and 78 other AP CS educators are ready to help you.
Ask a new question
Labs
Want to see this concept in action?
Explore this concept interactively to see how it behaves as you change inputs.
Key Concepts
Recommended Videos
We can potentially evaluate the performance of Logit/Probit models based on measures calculated from the confusion matrix, such as precision and recall. However, in many cases, these two measures may send conflicting messages. Let's say we have two models (M1 and M2), where the precision of M1 = 0.8 and the recall of M1 = 0.4, whereas the precision of M2 = 0.4 and the recall of M2 = 0.8. How would you choose between the two models? Explain.
Madhur L.
Figure 1 provides a confusion matrix of a classification algorithm that is used for fraud detection. Comment on the false positives, false negatives and accuracy in order to help an end user (without any quantitative background) determine the pros and cons of using this fraud detection tool. (You can use at most 250 words in your response.) Reference (Actual) Predicted No (0) Yes (1) No (0) 21 4 Yes (1) 8 12 Figure 1: Confusion Matrix
Sri K.
Credit card fraud costs businesses in the United States billions of dollars each year in stolen goods. Compounding the problem, the risk of fraud increases with the rapidly growing online retail market. To reduce fraud, businesses and credit card vendors have devised systems that recognize characteristics of fraudulent transactions. These systems are not perfect, however, and sometimes flag honest transactions as fraudulent and sometimes miss fraudulent transactions. A business has been offered a fraud detection system to protect its online retail site. The system promises very high accuracy. The system catches 99% of fraudulent transactions; that is, given a transaction is fraudulent, the system signals a problem 99% of the time. The system flags honest transactions as fraudulent only 2% of the time. Motivation: (a) What would be the possible consequences to the retailer of mistaking honest transactions for fraudulent transactions? Mistaking fraudulent transactions for honest transactions? Method: (b) The description of this system gives several conditional probabilities, but are these the conditional probabilities that are most relevant to owners of the retail site? What other probabilities would be helpful? Mechanics: (c) Suppose that the prevalence of fraud among transactions at the retailer is 1%. What are the chances that the system incorrectly labels honest transactions as fraudulent? (d) Suppose that the prevalence of fraud is higher, at 5%. How does the performance of this system change? Message: (e) Summarize your evaluation of this system for the retailer. Do you think that this system will be adequate for its needs?
Joanna Q.
Recommended Textbooks
Computer Science and Information Technology
Introduction to Programming Using Python
Computer Science - An Overview
Transcript
18,000,000+
Students on Numerade
Trusted by students at 8,000+ universities
Watch the video solution with this free unlock.
EMAIL
PASSWORD