To examine the continuity and discontinuity in the criminal careers of 7,453 females of low socio-economic status, Tracy and Kempf-Leonard (1996) examined whether these females were non-offenders, one-time offenders, recidivist offenders, or chronic offenders as juveniles and whether these females became non-offenders, one-time offenders, recidivist offenders, or chronic offenders as adults. Non-offenders committed zero offenses, one-time offenders committed one offense, recidivist offenders committed two to four offenses, and chronic offenders committed five or more offenses.
Juvenile Offender Group Adult Offender Group
Non-offender One-Time
Recidivist Chronic
Non-offender 5954
One-Time 149
Recidivist 41
Chronic 4
One-Time 669
Recidivist 60
Chronic 13
Recidivist 3
Chronic 385
Recidivist 42
Chronic 25
Recidivist 3
Chronic 73
Recidivist 15
Chronic 12
Recidivist 5
Total 7081
Recidivist 266
Chronic 91
Recidivist 15
What is the probability that an adult is a recidivist offender? (5 points)
Is this a conditional or unconditional probability? Explain. (5 points)
What is the probability that an adult is not a recidivist offender? (5 points)
What is the probability that an adult is a recidivist offender or a chronic offender? (5 points)
What is the probability that a juvenile is a non-offender? (5 points)
What is the probability that a juvenile one-time offender became a non-offender as an adult? (5 points)