00:01
Hello and welcome back to statistics.
00:03
So today we need to answer this important question.
00:05
So let's get right into it.
00:07
You and a friend are talking about the probability of getting heads on a single toss of a fair coin.
00:12
Your friend insists that you are more likely to get heads on a single toss of a fair coin than a tails.
00:18
Is your friend correct? why or why not? and if we were to toss a fair coin an infinite number of times, what we would we expect.
00:26
So just going on what we know about coins, we know that coins have heads or tails and when you flip it, it's completely random.
00:36
So we know it's an actuality, it's a 50 -50.
00:40
So let's use this similar to see why or why not.
00:43
So let's just start by one at a time.
00:45
So doing one coin at a time, your friend says you're more likely to get heads.
00:50
Let's just find out.
00:51
Let's do like five individual flips.
00:53
So we got tails, we got tails, heads, heads, and we got heads.
01:02
So in this case, it could seem, with a small sample size, that, oh yeah, there's more heads than tails, so you're more likely to do that.
01:13
However, your friend is not actually correct.
01:15
Let's do five flips this time.
01:18
So we got tails, tails, heads, tails, tails.
01:26
So this time, there's only four heads out of the ten that we did, meaning that this time there's a less number of heads.
01:34
So let's reset, and let's go with a thousand.
01:37
So we can see that there are 469 total heads, which means there's what, 531 tails.
01:47
So the probability of getting heads is only 0 .469.
01:52
So let's do 9 ,000.
01:54
So the probability of heads increase to 0 .4715...