Suppose that the spot price, 6-month futures price, and 12 -month futures price for wheat are 250,260 , and 270 cents per bushel, respectively. Suppose that the price of wheat follows the process in equation (36.3) with $a=0.05$ and $\sigma=0.15$. Construct a two-timestep tree for the price of wheat in a risk-neutral world.
A farmer has a project that involves an expenditure of $$\$ 10,000$$ and a further expenditure of $$\$ 90,000$$ in 6 months. It will increase wheat that is harvested and sold by 40,000 bushels in 1 year. What is the value of the project? Suppose that the farmer can abandon the project in 6 months and avoid paying the $$\$ 90,000$$ cost at that time. What is the value of the abandonment option? Assume a risk-free rate of $5 \%$ with continuous compounding.