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Introductory Econometrics

Jeffrey M. Wooldridge

Chapter 12

Serial Correlation and Heteroskedasticity in Time Series Regressions - all with Video Answers

Educators


Chapter Questions

01:44

Problem 1

In Example $11.6,$ we estimated a finite DL model in first differences (changes):
$$\operatorname{cg} f r_{t}=\gamma_{0}+\delta_{0} c p e_{t}+\delta_{1} c p e_{t-1}+\delta_{2} c p e_{t-2}+u_{r}$$
Use the data in FERTIL 3 to test whether there is $\mathrm{AR}(1)$ serial correlation in the errors.

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04:51

Problem 2

$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) Using the data in WAGEPRC, estimate the distributed lag model from Problem } 5 \text { in Chapter } 11 .} \\ {\text { Use regression }(12.14) \text { to test for } A R(1) \text { serial correlation. }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (ii) Reestimate the model using iterated Cochrane- Orcutt estimation. What is your new estimate of }} \\ {\text { the long-run propensity? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iii) Using iterated CO, find the standard error for the LRP. (This requires you to estimate a modified }} \\ {\text { equation.) Determine whether the estimated LRP is statistically different from one at the } 5 \% \text { level. }}\end{array}$

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Heather Duong
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01:38

Problem 3

$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) In part (i) of Computer Exercise C6 in Chapter } 11, \text { you were asked to estimate the accelerator }} \\ {\text { model for inventory investment. Test this equation for AR(1) serial correlation. }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (ii) If you find evidence of serial correlation, reestimate the equation by Cochrane-Orcutt and }} \\ {\text { compare the results. }}\end{array}$

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Heather Duong
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07:28

Problem 4

$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) Use NYSE to estimate equation }(12.48) . \text { Let } \hat{h}_{t} \text { be the fitted values from this equation (the esti-i- }} \\ {\text { mates of the conditional variance). How many } \hat{h}_{t} \text { are negative? }}\end{array}$
$\quad \text {(ii) Add } \text {return}_{t-1}^{2} \text { to }(12.48) \text { and again compute the fitted values, } \hat{h}_{t} \text { . Are any } \hat{h}_{t}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iii) Use the } \hat{h}_{t} \text { from part (ii) to estimate }(12.47) \text { by weighted least squares (as in Section } 8-4 ) \text { . }} \\ {\text { Compare your estimate of } \beta_{1} \text { with that in equation }(11.16) . \text { Test } \mathrm{H}_{0} : \beta_{1}=0 \text { and compare the }} \\ {\text { outcome when OLS is used. }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iv) Now, estimate }(12.47) \text { by WLS, using the estimated ARCH model in }(12.51) \text { to obtain the } \hat{h}_{t}} \\ {\text { Does this change your findings from part (iii)? }}\end{array}$

Heather Duong
Heather Duong
Numerade Educator
06:40

Problem 5

Consider the version of Fair's model in Example $10.6 .$ Now, rather than predicting the proportion of
the two-party vote received by the Democrat, estimate a linear probability model for whether or not the
Democrat wins.
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) Use the binary variable demwins in place of demvote in }(10.23) \text { and report the results in }} \\ {\text { standard form. Which factors affect the probability of winning? Use the data only through } 1992 \text { 2 }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (ii) How many fitted values are less than zero? How many are greater than one? }} \\ {\text { (iii) Use the following prediction rule: if demwins }>.5, \text { you predict the Democrat wins; otherwise }} \\ {\text { the Republican wins. Using this rule, determine how many of the } 20 \text { elections are correctly }} \\ {\text { predicted by the model. }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iv) Plug in the values of the explanatory variables for } 1996 . \text { What is the predicted probability that }} \\ {\text { Clinton would win the election? Clinton did win; did you get the correct prediction? }} \\ {\text { Clse a heteroskedasticity-robust } t \text { test for } A R(1) \text { serial correlation in the errors. What do you }} \\ {\text { find? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (v) Use a heteroskedasticity-robust test for AR (1) serial correlation in the errors. What do you }} \\ {\text { find? }} \\ {\text { (vi) Obtain the heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors for the estimates in part (i). Are there }} \\ {\text { notable changes in any } t \text { statistics? }}\end{array}$

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02:43

Problem 6

$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) In Computer Exercise } \mathrm{C} 7 \text { in Chapter } 10, \text { you estimated a simple relationship between consump- }} \\ {\quad \text { tion growth and growth in disposable income. Test the equation for } A R(1) \text { serial correlation }} \\ {\quad \text { (using CONSUMP). }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (ii) In Computer Exercise } \mathrm{C} 7 \text { in Chapter } 11, \text { you tested the permanent income hypothesis by }} \\ {\text { regressing the growth in consumption on one lag. After running this regression, test for }} \\ {\text { heteroskedasticity by regressing the squared residuals on } g c_{t-1} \text { and } g c_{t-1}^{2} . \text { What do you conclude? }}\end{array}$

Heather Duong
Heather Duong
Numerade Educator
01:50

Problem 7

$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) For Example } 12.4, \text { using the data in BARIUM, obtain the iterative Cochrane-Orcutt estimates }} \\ {\text { (ii) Are the Prais-Winsten and Cochrane-Orcutt estimates similar? Did you expect them to be? }}\end{array}$

Heather Duong
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08:41

Problem 8

Use the data in TRAFFIC2 for this exercise.
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) Run an OLS regression of prefat on a linear time trend, monthly dummy variables, and the }} \\ {\text { variables wkends, unem, spdlaw, and beltlaw. Test the errors for AR (1) correlation }} \\ {\text { using the regression in equation }(12.14) . \text { Does it make sense to use the test that assumes strict }} \\ {\text { exogeneity of the regressors? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (ii) Obtain serial correlation- and heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors for the coefficients on }} \\ {\text { spdlaw and beltlaw, using four lags in the Newey-West estimator. How does this affect the }} \\ {\text { statistical significance of the two policy variables? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iii) Now, estimate the model using iterais-Winsten and compare the estimates with the OLS }} \\ {\text { estimates. Are there important changes in the policy variable coefficients or their statistical }} \\ {\text { significance? }}\end{array}$

Heather Duong
Heather Duong
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13:51

Problem 9

The file FISH contains 97 daily price and quantity observations on fish prices at the Fulton Fish Marke
in New York City. Use the variable log(avgprc) as the dependent variable.
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) Regress log(avgprc) on four daily dummy variables, with Friday as the base. Include a linear }} \\ {\text { time trend. Is there evidence that price varies systematically within a week? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (ii) } \text { Now, add the variables wave } 2 \text { and wave, which are measures of wave heights over the past }} \\ {\text { several days. Are these variables individually significant? Describe a mechanism by which }} \\ {\text { stormy seas would increase the price of fish. }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iii) What happened to the time trend when wave } 2 \text { and wave } 3 \text { were added to the regression? What }} \\ {\text { must be going on? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iv) Explain why all explanatory variables in the regression are safely assumed to be strictly }} \\ {\text { exogenous. }} \\ {\text { (v) Test the errors for AR (1) serial correlation. }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (vi) Obtain the Newey-West standard errors using four lags. What happens to the } t \text { statistics on }} \\ {\text { wave } 2 \text { and waves? Did you expect a bigger or smaller change compared with the usual OLS }} \\ {t \text { statistics? }} \\ {\text { (vii) Now, obtain the Prais-Winsten estimates for the model estimated in part (ii). Are wave? and }} \\ {\text { wave } 3 \text { jointly statistically significant? }}\end{array}$

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Heather Duong
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03:42

Problem 10

Use the data in PHILLIPS to answer these questions.
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) Using the entire data set, estimate the static Phillips curve equation } i n f_{t}=\beta_{0}+\beta_{1} \text { unem_{t} }+u_{t}} \\ {\text { by OLS and report the results in the usual form. }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (ii) Obtain the OLS residuals from part (i), } \hat{u}_{t} \text { and obtain } \rho \text { from the regression } \hat{u}_{t} \text { on } \hat{u}_{t-1} . \text { (It is fine }} \\ {\text { to include an intercept in this regression.) Is there strong evidence of serial correlation? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iii) Now estimate the static Phillips curve model by iterative Prais-Winsten. Compare the estimate }} \\ {\text { of } \beta_{1} \text { with that obtained in Table } 12.2 . \text { Is there much difference in the estimate when the later }} \\ {\text { years are added? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iv) } \quad \text { Rather than using Prais-Winsten, use iterative Cochrane-Orcutt. How similar are the final }} \\ {\text { estimates of } \rho ? \text { How similar are the PW and CO estimates of } \beta_{1} \text { ? }}\end{array}$

Heather Duong
Heather Duong
Numerade Educator
04:49

Problem 11

Use the data in NYSE to answer these questions.
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) Estimate the model in equation }(12.47) \text { and obtain the squared OLS residuals. Find the average, }} \\ {\text { minimum, and maximum values of } \hat{u}_{t}^{2} \text { over the sample. }}\end{array}$
(ii) Use the squared OLS residuals to estimate the following model of heteroskedasticity:
$$\operatorname{Var}\left(u_{t} | \operatorname{return}_{t-1}, \text { return}_{t-2}, \ldots\right)=\operatorname{Var}\left(u_{t} | r e t u r n_{t-1}\right)=\delta_{0}+\delta_{1} r e t u r n_{t-1}+\delta_{2} r e t u r n_{t-1}^{2}$$
Report the estimated coefficients, the reported standard errors, the $R$ -squared, and the adjusted
$R$ -squared.
(iii) Sketch the conditional variance as a function of the lagged return $_{-1} .$ For what value of return $_{-1}$
is the variance the smallest, and what is the variance?
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iv) For predicting the dynamic variance, does the model in part (ii) produce any negative variance }} \\ {\text { estimates? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iv) For predicting the dynamic variance, does the model in part (ii) produce any negative variance }} \\ {\text { estimates? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (v) Does the model in part (ii) seem to fit better or worse than the ARCH(1) model in }} \\ {\text { Example } 12.9 ? \text { Explain. }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (vi) To the ARCH(1) regression in equation }(12.51), \text { add the second lag, } \hat{u}_{t-2}^{2} . \text { Does this lag seem }} \\ {\text { important? Does the ARCH(2) model fit better than the model in part (ii)? }}\end{array}$

Heather Duong
Heather Duong
Numerade Educator
01:44

Problem 12

Use the data in INVEN for this exercise; see also Computer Exercise $\mathrm{C} 6$ in Chapter $11 .$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) Obtain the OLS residuals from the accelerator model \Deltainvent }=\beta_{0}+\beta_{1} \Delta G D P_{t}+u_{t} \text { and use }} \\ {\text { the regression } \hat{u}_{t} \text { on } \hat{u}_{t-1} \text { to test for serial correlation. What is the estimate of } \rho ? \text { How big a }} \\ {\text { problem does serial correlation seem to be? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (ii) Estimate the accelerator model by PW, and compare the estimate of } \beta_{1} \text { to the OLS estimate }} \\ {\text { Why do you expect them to be similar? }}\end{array}$

Heather Duong
Heather Duong
Numerade Educator
03:48

Problem 13

Use the data in OKUN to answer this question; see also Computer Exercise $\mathrm{C} 11$ in Chapter 11.
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) Estimate the equation $p \operatorname{crg} d p_{t}=\beta_{0}+\beta_{1}$ cunem $_{t}+u_{t}$ and test the errors for $\mathrm{AR}(1)$ serial
correlation, without assuming \{cunem; } t=1,2, \ldots \} \text { is strictly exogenous. What do you }} \\ {\text { conclude? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (ii) Regress the squared residuals, } \hat{u}_{t}^{2}, \text { on cunem, (this is the Breusch-Pagan test for for }} \\ {\text { heteroskedasticity in the simple regression case). What do you conclude? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iii) Obtain the heteroskedasticity-robust standard error for the OLS estimate } \hat{\beta}_{1} . \text { Is it substantially }} \\ {\text { different from the usual OLS standard error? }}\end{array}$

Heather Duong
Heather Duong
Numerade Educator
09:34

Problem 14

Use the data in MINWAGE for this exercise, focusing on sector $232 .$
(i) Estimate the equation
$$g w a g e 232_{t}=\beta_{0}+\beta_{1} g m w a g e_{t}+\beta_{2} g c p i_{i}+u_{t r}$$
and test the errors for $\mathrm{AR}(1)$ serial correlation. Does it matter yhether you assume gmwage_ and
$g c p i_{t}$ are strictly exogenous? What do you conclude overall?
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (ii) Obtain the Newey-West standard error for the OLS estimates in part (i), using a lag of } 12 . \text { How }} \\ {\text { do the Newey-West standard errors compare to the usual OLS standard errors? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iii) Now obtain the heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors for OLS, and compare them with the }} \\ {\text { usual standard errors and the Newey-West standard errors. Does it appear that serial correlation }} \\ {\text { or heteroskedasticity is more of a problem in this application? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iv) Use the Breusch-Pagan test in the original equation to verify that the errors exhibit strong }} \\ {\text { heteroskedasticity. }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (v) Add lags } 1 \text { through } 12 \text { of gmwage to the equation in part (i). Obtain the } p \text { -value for the joint } F} \\ {\text { test for lags } 1 \text { through } 12, \text { and compare it with the } p \text { -value for the heteroskedasticity-robust test. }} \\ {\text { How does adjusting for heteroskedasticity affect the significance of the lags? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (vi) Obtain the } p \text { -value for the joint significance test in part (v) using the Newey-West approach. }} \\ {\text { What do you conclude now? }} \\ {\text { (vii) If you leave out the lags of gmwage, is the estimate of the long-run propensity much different? }}\end{array}$

Heather Duong
Heather Duong
Numerade Educator
08:48

Problem 15

Use the data in BARIUM to answer this question.
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (i) In Table } 12.1 \text { the reported standard errors for OLS are uniformly below those of the }} \\ {\text { corresponding standard errors for Grs (Prais-Winsten). Explain why comparing the OLS and }} \\ {\text { GLS standard errors is flawed. }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (ii) Reestimate the equation represented by the column labeled "OLS" in Table } 12.1 \text { by OLS, but }} \\ {\text { now find the Newey-West standard errors using a window } g=4 \text { (four months). How does the }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { Newey-West standard error on } \text {lchempi} \text { compare to the usual OLS standard error? How does it }} \\ {\text { compare to the P-W standard error? Make the same comparisons for the afdec6 variable. }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iii) Redo part (ii) now using a window } g=12 . \text { What happens to the standard errors on } \text {lchempi} \text { and }} \\ {\text { afdec6 when the window increases from } 4 \text { to } 12 ?}\end{array}$

Heather Duong
Heather Duong
Numerade Educator
05:41

Problem 16

Use the data in APPROVAL to answer the following questions. See also Computer Exercise $\mathrm{Cl} 4$ in
Chapter $11 .$
(i) Estimate the equation
approve_ approve $_{t}=\beta_{0}$ $+\beta_{1} l c p i f o o d$ $+\beta_{2} \operatorname{lrgasprice}_{t}$ $\beta_{3} u n e m p l o y_{t}+$ $+\beta_{4} \operatorname{sep} 11_{t}$ $\beta_{5}$iraqinvade$_{t}+u_{t}$
using first differencing and test the errors in the first-differenced (FD) equation for AR $(1)$ serial
correlation. In particular, let $\hat{e}_{t}$ be the OLS residuals in the FD estimation and regress $\hat{e}_{t}$ on $\hat{e}_{t-1}$ ;
report the $p$ -value of the test. What is the estimate of $\rho ?$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (ii) Estimate the FD equation using Prais-Winsten. How does the estimate of } \beta_{2} \text { compare with the }} \\ {\text { OLS estimate on the FD equation? What about its statistical significance? }}\end{array}$
$\begin{array}{l}{\text { (iii) Return to estimating the FD equation by OLS. Now obtain the Newey-West standard errors }} \\ {\text { using lags of one, four, and eight. Discuss the statistical significance of the estimate of } \beta_{2} \text { using }} \\ {\text { each of the three standard errors. }}\end{array}$

Heather Duong
Heather Duong
Numerade Educator