UBC OKANAGAN ENGR 303 101: Project Management Assignment 4 Group 12: Daniel Horembala (73700999) Amman Khurshid (43189927) Pearce Hanna (86983780) Scott Harman (50071159) Harshil Chauhan (64421662) School of Engineering Faculty of Applied Science The University of British Columbia Okanagan
Monte-Carlo Simulation for Scheduling and Costing Question 1 - Construct the activity diagram. Conduct Monte-Carlo simulation analysis (1000 or more runs) for the network, with MS Excel. Please see the attached excel file attached in the submission. Question 2 Identify the criticality index (how many times a particular path of the network diagram is critical - as a percentage) for each activity path. 3 6 1 2 8 5 Row 617 Critical paths 1 82 -23-6-7-8 & DI +2-4-78 D2 1 DIMMay Duration~80/20+14+16+5+7+18] Calculated, from excel->71.99 %9 particular path being critical ~> 71.99 0.898 80 89.98% (D) 1-2-5-7-8 Max Duration -> 80/ 20+14 + 2/ +7 +8 Calculated From excel 75.52. 80
Question 3 Identify the duration and cost of this project at 70% confidence (i.e. 30% probability of overrun) Cost Distribution Curve 120 100 80. 701 Likelihood % 60 40 20 0 340 350 360 368 370 Project Total Cost ('000$) 380 390 Comulative Distribution function 120 100 80 70% Probabiltiy (Confidence Level) - % 60 40 20 0 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 Duration (Time Unit) 70.00 80.00 82 90.00 100.00 Finding where the 70% line meets with the cost and duration distribution curves, shows that with a 70% confidence, you can say that the project will take 82 days and 368,000$ to complete.