Semester Two Final Examinations, 2016 STAT1201 Analysis of Scientific Data AC THE UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND AUSTRALIA Venue Seat Number Student Number Family Name This exam paper must not be removed from the venue First Name School of Mathematics & Physics EXAMINATION Semester Two Final Examinations, 2016 STAT1201 Analysis of Scientific Data This paper is for Gatton Campus (External), Gatton Campus and St Lucia Campus students. Examination Duration: 120 minutes Reading Time: 10 minutes Exam Conditions: This is a Central Examination This is a Closed Book Examination - specified materials permitted For Examiner Use Only Question Mark 1 2 During reading time - Write only on rough paper provided 3 This examination paper will be released to the Library 4 Materials Permitted In The Exam Venue: (No electronic aids are permitted e.g. laptops, phones) 5 Calculators - Casio FX82 series or UQ approved (labelled) One A4 sheet of handwritten notes double sided is permitted Materials To Be Supplied To Students: Total none Instructions To Students: There are 90 marks available on this exam from 5 questions. Marks are indicated for each question. Write your answers in the spaces provided in Part A (pages 2-15) of this examination paper. Show your working and state conclusions where appropriate. The backs of pages in Part A may be used for rough working but these will not be marked. Part B (pages 16-19) gives formulas and statistical tables. Pages in Part B will not be marked. Page 1 of 19
STAT1201 Analysis of Scientific Data Semester Two Final Examinations, 2016 Part A - Questions Question 1 [14 marks] A recent study in Germany estimated the prevalence of doping in recreational triathletes using a randomised-response method. Anonymous questionnaires were distributed to athletes during the registration procedure on the day before a triathlon event. The questionnaire asked for general information (including gender, age, height, weight) and information about training routines but not for any detailed personal information (such as name, address or date of birth). The final page the questionnaire then included the following: A. Is your best friend's birthday within the first ten days of a month? If you answer 'Yes' to A then please answer the following: B1. Is your best friend's birthday in the first half of the year? If you answer 'No' to A then please answer the following: B2. Have you taken substances to increase your physical performance in the past 12 months that are only available at a pharmacy, at the doctor's office or on the black market (e.g. anabolic steroids, EPO, growth hormones, stimulants)? (a) What is the probability that an athlete will be asked to answer the sensitive question B2? Identify any assumptions you make in your estimate. [4 marks] Page 2 of 19
Semester Two Final Examinations, 2016 ! ! ! STAT1201 Analysis of Scientific Data (b) Draw a tree diagram to describe the process described above. Indicate the probabilities on each branch of the tree, including the unknown probability, p, of interest. [3 marks] (c) A total