The Spectre of an Asian Arms Race CHRISTIAN LE MIERE Christian Le Miere's "The Spectre of an Asian Arms Race" is a questioning of whether the procurement of Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) capabilities by nations in the region is indicative of the beginning of a period of arms races and security dilemmas. In his analysis, Le Miere enhances the study of the Asia-Pacific in security literature; focusing on the subtleties in the dynamics within the region which subvert classical definitions of arms races and security dilemmas. Thus, Le Miere argues that the current situation, which is characterised by "multilateral relationships, a lack of military parity amongst rivals, and a relative absence of urgency" in the procurement of A2/AD capabilities, is a "security quandary" rather than a traditional arms race or security dilemma. Le Miere's first point of analysis is the situation in South-East Asia, where he argues that the development of A2/AD capabilities is based on the fear of a "stronger rival intervening in their claimed territory or exclusive economic zone" rather than an attempt to gain parity with the dominant power or change the military balance of power in the region. Here, his argument hinges upon the assumption that whilst many factors contribute to this increased procurement, the primary driving force is China's military superiority. To support this, he analyses the situation in the South China Sea, where South-East Asian navies have had to procure their A2/AD capabilities to bridge the gap between Chinese naval capabilities and their own, and to complicate the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) movements at sea. In this, he cites the 30% increase in anti-ship missile launchers with long-range strike capabilities in East Asia gives these states the potential to prevent the Chinese from accessing the waters close to their shore. Further, Le Miere highlights that the development of sea-denial and A2/AD capabilities is occurring just as China further develops its naval capabilities - suggesting that there is a type of security dilemma within the region, though not the classic definition of the term. However, Le Miere fails to expand upon the "other factors" involved in procurement are crucial to the analysis of the security situation in the region. For instance, Le Miere largely avoids analysis of countries that have no territorial disputes and so no "uncertainty over whether their defensive procurement programmes" will deter their stronger rivals. For instance, Thailand has increased its arms imports by almost 600% in the past 5 years for internal security rather than the existence of external threats. Further, he fails to mention factors such as prestige and the rising rate of economic growth which may also contribute to the increase in A2/AD acquisitions. Despite this, Le Miere presents a well-balanced and persuasive argument of the security situation in South-East Asia.
The development of A2/AD capabilities by South-East Asian nations are designed to exploit deficiencies in the Chinese arsenal, particularly its lack of anti-submarine warfare capabilities and anti-missile defence - a fact which Beijing is aware of and actively trying