SECURITY STUDIES FINAL EXAM NOTES ON TOPICS QUESTION 1 - POWER TRANSITIONS LECTURE NOTES > POWER TRANSITION THEORY Power Transitions Theory (PTT) - Relative power shifts always occurring, and manner of power shift has changed - Inevitably, a challenger rises, prompting fear in the hegemon - "Newcomers are constantly challenging the established leaders of world politics, and if ever one of these challenges is successful, it will mean a huge transference of power from one group of nations to another-and a new international order." - 'One could almost say that the rise of such a challenger guarantees a major war" o But what about UK-US power transition? - Satisfied and dissatisfied powers Under PTT, when is war most likely? - Challenger has few incentives for war if they are less powerful than hegemon o Best to wait until parity is achieved, or wait until well past it - Maybe the point of greatest risk is parity o Both hegemon and challenger will have incentives - Or maybe it is as challenger is still growing o Hegemon will have incentives to "strangle the baby in the cradle" What does the history say? - o Example of WW2: challengers started the war while still weaker · Organski believes rising powers more likely to initiate wars Under PTT, what makes war more/ less likely - Does challenger's rise seem inevitable? AFKO: if yes, war less likely o Shadow of the future encourages power sharing / adjustment - Does challenger rise to power quickly? AFKO: if yes, war more likely o Leaders led astray by increases in national power · Challenger may keep behaving like a less-powerful state, antagonising others o Domestic turmoil may encourage challenger to lash outwards. o Challenger may get cocky - too confident too soon - Is the dominant power flexible? AFKO: if yes, war less likely o When to make concessions - If there friendship btw hegemon and challenger? AFKO: if yes, war less likely The Thucydides Trap (Allison) - Thucydides: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable" o Athens = challenger, Sparta = dominant power - o Not a prediction of inevitability (despite the word being used), but of increased risk - Had been allies in Persian Wars. Battles of Thermopylae and Salamis (480BC). After victory in Persian Wars, security competition emerges. o Athens=maritime power, Sparta=land power. - Thirty Years' Peace: security order tames competition for three decades 435BC: Corinth (Spartan ally) attacks neutral Corcyra. - o Athenian support prevents Corinthian conquest of Corcyra o Corinth laments Sparta's inaction, threatens to withdraw from alliance - Athenians warn Sparta, urge it to seek mediation - 432: Sparta gathers allies, votes for war. 30 years of war results in Spartan "victory" Allison's Observations - Neither Athens nor Sparta wanted war
- Note Thucydides' explanation: fear, honour and interest - Subsequent instances of the 'Thucydides Trap' o Not just global hegemonic contests, but regional too · Late 1800s/early 1900s: China