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The Dynamics of War and Peace in the Indo-Pacific Region

Introduction to Security Studies · Economics is often called the "dismal science"; this can only be because economics is older than security studies. · The lofty language of strategy and security is necessary, but it should not obscure the fundamental reality at the heart of security studies; humans killing each other in all sorts of inventive ways in the activity known as war. . The last big war in our part of the world was the 3rd Indo-China war, when China decided to teach Vietnam a lesson and sent troops into northern Vietnam. The loss of life was something in the order of 50,000. . Since then peace has largely reigned in the Indo-Pacific region, unlike in the Middle East and Africa. We have small wars, like the Southern Thai conflict. This has conflict has amassed a large loss of life; some 8,000 since 2004. But because it is intrastate, and spread out, it tends to be ignored. But it goes on, in a way described as "drip, drip, drip" by scholar Zachary Abuza. A shooting here, and IED there, the occasional big ambush or bomb blast. These small wars tend to be the only form of war in our region. . The IS attack on the Southern Philippines city of Marawi in 2017 that killed 165 soldiers, 67 civilians and 954 militants in 5 months was quite a surprise and not likely to be repeated. . So we have peace in our region for about 42 years, but most would concede that this is what Johannes Galtung would call a "negative peace"; its is a peace that in Northeast Asia and the Korean peninsula, is maintained more by deterrence than any resolution of underlying disputes or grievances. The prospect of war . We are in a curious stage of history where the trend lines show a decline in war and yet the potential for more devastating wars than have ever occurred still exists. . In some ways it is indisputably the case that this is the best time to be alive in the history of the human race. We are not likely to die of violence, let alone violence caused by wars. . And yet we spend vast amounts of money on militaries and arms. United States spends about 4% of their annual economic output, Australia 2%, Japan 1%. Hundreds of billions of dollars in the case of the US, tens of billions in Australia's case. About 8% of government outlays. All money that could go to schools and education, to hospitals and health. Why do we continue to do this? . In the 2009 Defence White Paper, the Australian government offered the view that "After careful examination, it is the Government's view that it would be premature to judge that war among states, including the major powers, has been eliminated as a feature of the international system." · "While growing economic and other interdependencies between states will act as a brake on the resort to force between them,