'The next major war will occur over the South China Sea'. Discuss, comparing to other potential security flashpoints. With the United States delving deeper into isolationism and self-interest under Trump's administration, and Xi Jinping's aggressive aims to turn China into a regional superpower, the Asia Pacific Theatre has become a focus point in the international arena. The South China Sea and its economic and strategic value has hence become a hub for heated tensions between China, the US, and other regional powers. Contention over this major security flashpoint therefore has great significance towards determining the future of major conflict evolving between two of the largest powers in the current international arena. This essay argues that whilst neighbouring security flashpoints in the Asia Pacific have some risk of sparking major conflict, it is the security dilemma in the South China Sea created by power asymmetries and hegemonic competition that will incite the next major war. The security dilemma in the South and East China Seas formed through China's maximization of power and the insecurity amongst neighbouring powers has taken the form of 'resource conflict.' Whilst neoliberal institutionalists argue that security multilateralism reduces insecurity and incentivizes cooperation, this essay queries the effectiveness of institutionalism following neorealist assumptions of anarchy and self-interest. Compounding on this security dilemma, China's perusal of regional hegemony and procurement of A2/AD capabilities directly threatens US national interest in the Asia Pacific, heightening the risk of conflict in Taiwan, and the East and South China Seas. Whilst China's projection of force, specifically in the South China Sea, has seen militaristic response by the US, many scholars argue that the economic consequences of war outweigh the benefits. Despite this, the offensive realist approach maintains the priority for survival through the perusal of regional hegemony. Therefore, the ensuing security dilemma with both the US and states littoral to the disputed sea will incite the next major war. Unipolarity and Power Asymmetries as a cause for security dilemma The asymmetrical power structure of the South China Sea will heighten insecurity of littoral states, causing a security dilemma through power balancing measures, and destabilize to the point of major war. Offensive Realists such as John Mearsheimer argue that States will seek "opportunities to gain more power and should do so whenever it seems feasible," through an idea known as 'power maximization.'1 This maximization of power has led to a 1 Mearsheimer, John J. 2013. International Relations Theories: Discipline And Diversity - Chapter 4: Structural Realism. 3rd ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press. P.72, 75
unipolar power dynamic in the between China and smaller neighbouring states in the South China Sea such as Vietnam and the Philippians. Following the neorealist assumption that insecurity will lead to a reliance on armament and the balancing of stronger powers, measures taken by littoral states in the South China Sea have created a security dilemma.2 This effect is further exacerbated through the nature of anarchy, as the "uncertainty of other countries intentions" and lack of a universal protective force