Question
Calculate DVA in Example 24.6. Assume that default can happen in the middle of each month. The default probability of the bank is 0.001 per month for the two years and the recovery rate in the event of a bank default is $40 \%$.
Step 1
The default probability per month is 0.001. Since there are 24 months in two years, the expected number of defaults is 0.001 * 24 = 0.024. Show more…
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Suppose an FI manager wants to find the probability of default on a two-year loan. For the one-year loan, 1 - p1 = 0.03 is the marginal and total or cumulative probability (Cp) of default in year 1. For the second year, suppose that 1 - p2 = 0.05. Calculate the cumulative probability of default over the next two years.
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