During a radio broadcast a few years ago, David Essel...

During a radio broadcast a few years ago, David Essel reported the following three statistics: (1) the U.S. divorce rate is $55 \%,$ and when married adults were asked if they would remarry their spouse, (2) $75 \%$ of the women said yes, and (3) $65 \%$ of the men said yes. a. What is the "stay married" rate? b. There seems to be a contradiction in this information. How is it possible for all three of these statements to be correct? Explain.

During a radio broadcast a few years ago, David Essel reported the following three statistics: (1) the U.S. divorce rate is $55 \%,$ and when married adults were asked if they would remarry their spouse, (2) $75 \%$ of the women said yes, and (3) $65 \%$ of the men said yes.
a. What is the "stay married" rate?
b. There seems to be a contradiction in this information. How is it possible for all three of these statements to be correct? Explain.

Key Concepts

Differences Between Attitudinal Responses and Actual Outcomes

This concept addresses the gap between what people say they would do (their reported willingness to stay married) and what actually happens in reality (the high divorce rate). Various factors such as changes in circumstances, long?term dynamics of relationships, and external pressures might lead to outcomes that differ from initial attitudes, thus explaining the seeming inconsistency in the reported statistics.

Divorce Rate versus Marital Stability

This concept involves understanding that a reported divorce rate (55% in the question) implies that the remaining percentage (45%) represents the rate at which marriages persist or stay intact. It is a straightforward arithmetic complement where if 55% of marriages end in divorce, then 45% do not, which is often termed the 'stay married' rate.

Selection Bias in Survey Samples

The statistics about how many married individuals would choose to remain with their current spouse (65% of men and 75% of women) come from a sample of people who are already married. This introduces a selection bias because the survey excludes those who are already divorced. Consequently, the attitudes expressed by the currently married group might not accurately predict marital stability across the entire population, contributing to the apparent contradiction when compared with the overall divorce rate.

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