Question

In Example 25.3, what is the spread for (a) a first-to-default CDS and (b) a second-todefault CDS?

   In Example 25.3, what is the spread for (a) a first-to-default CDS and (b) a second-todefault CDS?
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives
John C. Hull 10th Edition
Chapter 25, Problem 28 ↓
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In Example 25.3, what is the spread for (a) a first-to-default CDS and (b) a second-todefault CDS?
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Key Concepts

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First-to-default CDS
A first-to-default CDS is a multi-name credit derivative where the protection is triggered by the default of the first entity within a basket of reference entities. The spread associated with this product is primarily determined by the individual default probabilities of the entities and the likelihood of at least one default occurring in the portfolio.
Default Correlation
Default correlation measures the degree to which the default events of different reference entities are related or tend to occur simultaneously. This concept is particularly important in multi-name CDS products such as first-to-default and second-to-default swaps, as higher correlation among entities increases the likelihood of multiple defaults impacting the valuation and risk profile of the contract.
Credit Default Swap (CDS)
A credit derivative contract in which the protection buyer pays a periodic premium to a protection seller in exchange for compensation if a specified credit event, such as default, occurs. This instrument transfers the credit risk of an asset and plays a crucial role in modern risk management and credit markets.
CDS Spread
The CDS spread is the periodic premium expressed as a percentage of the notional amount that the protection buyer pays to the seller. It reflects the market's assessment of the default risk of the underlying reference entity or portfolio, and it is affected by factors such as default probability, recovery rates, and overall market conditions.
Second-to-default CDS
A second-to-default CDS is another multi-name credit derivative in which the payout occurs only after two entities in the reference basket have defaulted. The spread for this product is influenced not only by the individual default probabilities but also by the correlation between defaults, resulting in a typically lower spread compared to a first-to-default CDS due to the additional trigger requirement.

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Transcript

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00:01 We're a number problem 16.
00:02 So it says three cds are picked at random from 12 cds, four of which are defective.
00:08 What's the probability of the following? all three cds are defective.
00:14 So let's think about this.
00:19 All right.
00:20 So there are 12 cds and i just say red for bad.
00:28 And four cds are bad.
00:33 So let's draw a frowny face.
00:39 Okay.
00:40 And what's the probability of the following? all three cds are selected.
00:46 So we're going to have three choosing of the cds.
00:55 And i guess in this problem, we are assuming that we are not going to replace.
01:01 So first, we're going to choose one cd, and we must assume that it's effective because that's the problem.
01:09 So we have probability of choosing the first cd being defective is 4 over 12.
01:17 Assuming that happens, the probability of choosing another defective cd will be 3 over 11.
01:27 The reason why 12 becomes 11 is because we are not going to put the cd back when we choose these cds...
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