00:01
Okay, so here we're interested in computing the percentage of clear number from each of the suppliers, so we can compute the percentage of clear number from supplier n using base theorem.
00:12
So we have the probability here of c given n.
00:15
That's going to be probability of c times probability of n given c, which is 0 .8 times 0 .4.
00:22
And then we divide that by 0 .8 times 0 .4 plus 0 .2 times 0 .3, which is going to give us 0 .32, divided by 0 .32 plus 0 .06.
00:35
So the probability here is going to be equal to 0 .841 or 84 .21%.
00:42
And then similarly, the percentage of clear number from supplier m is computed as the probability of c given m.
00:52
So that's going to be equal to 0 .16 divided by 0 .16 plus 0 .1 .1, which is going to be equal to 0 .6154, so 61 .54%, and then we compute the probability of c given s, so that's going to be equal to 0 .8 times 0 .4, so 0 .32, divided by 0 .8 times 0 .4 plus 0 .2 plus 0 .32, and that's going to be 0 .32 plus 0 .04.
01:27
And that gives us a probability here of 0 .889.
01:32
So 88 .89...