The conclusion of Exercise 5.11 may be a bit surprising -...

The conclusion of Exercise 5.11 may be a bit surprising - can you really find out what is best for you by merely considering what you are likely to do? For example, the probability is 0.99 that a smoker will smoke another cigarette, but it seems false to conclude that it would be better for the smoker to smoke yet another cigarette. What could the advocate of the probabilistic theory say in response to this objection?

Key Concepts

Revealed Preference Theory

This concept holds that an individual’s actual behavior, as expressed through the choices they are most likely to make, reveals their underlying preferences. Advocates argue that by observing what one is likely to do, one can infer what one truly values, and therefore what is best for oneself despite any seeming conflicts between immediate impulses and long?term goals.

Probabilistic Decision Theory

Probabilistic decision theory integrates one's beliefs about future actions and outcomes with decision making, often via expected utility calculations. It suggests that what is best for an individual can be determined by considering the probabilities of various actions occurring, thereby reflecting the agent’s self-assessed likelihood of success or failure based on existing dispositions and preferences.

Reflective Equilibrium

Reflective equilibrium is the process by which an individual adjusts their beliefs and judgments until they reach a consistent state that reflects both their intuitions and their observed behavior. Supporters of probabilistic theory claim that if one’s actions are coherently aligned with one’s self-assessed probabilities, then one's behavior—even if seemingly harmful—is, under that framework, what one considers best after reflective balancing of reasons and desires.

Descriptive versus Normative Distinctions

This distinction separates what people actually do (descriptive) from what they ought to do (normative). In the context of the objection—like a smoker’s high probability of smoking—probabilistic theorists may argue that the agent’s revealed behavior is a reliable guide to their normative best, even if it seems counterintuitive when viewed from an external perspective.

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