00:01
So we have d is having down syndrome and n is testing normal on the ultrasound.
00:06
And we know all of these probabilities.
00:08
We know four conditionals and we know two of the probability of having down syndrome and they didn't really have to tell us this one.
00:17
We could have done that with a compliment.
00:19
But we want to use bayes ' theorem to find this probability.
00:23
And that says for down given normal, we take normal given down times the probability of d divided by the probability of normal.
00:36
Now this event we have.
00:39
This event we have.
00:42
So so far so good.
00:44
This event we don't have.
00:46
Otherwise this question would be really easy.
00:48
So now we have to find the likelihood of testing normal.
00:53
Well how do you test normal? you either have downs and test normal or you don't have downs and you test normal.
01:03
So this would be like a mistake.
01:06
You shouldn't test normal if you have downs but it's going to happen.
01:09
Now how do we find the intersection? we take the probability of having downs times the probability of testing normal given having downs...