Xqturnu is a visitor from the planet Mars. Xqturnu has never seen a euro coin, but has been asked by a welcoming committee of scientists to make a guess what the probability is that when a euro coin gets thrown in the air, it will land ‘heads’. Xqturnu initially has a prior belief that this probability is 50%, but Xqturnu would like to see some data. The scientists oblige and flip the euro coin three times, each time it lands ‘heads’. Xqturnu, being well-versed in Bayesian statistics, decides to update his belief using these three coin flips to end up with a more refined belief about the probability that the euro coin will land ‘heads’ on a random flip. How should Xqturnu’s belief about the probability that the euro coin will land ‘heads’ on a random flip have changed, based only on the observed result of the three coin flips?
A) Not at all, three coin flips is too little information, Xqturnu should stick to 50%
B) A probability higher than 50% has become more likely
C) Xqturnu should be certain the probability is 100%
D) A probability lower than 50% has become more likely