4. [Maximum mark: 12]
A type of generator will only function if a particular switch is working. The generator has a main switch, A, and a 'back up' switch, B.
The manufacturer claims the probability of switch A failing within one month of being fitted is 0.1 and the probability of the cheaper switch B failing within one month is 0.3. Whether or not a switch fails is independent of the state of the other switch.
If both switches fail, the generator needs to shut down to replace the switches. Both switches are replaced after a month of use (whether they have failed or not) or whenever the generator needs to be shut down.
The following tree diagram shows the probabilities of a switch failing within one month of them both being replaced, assuming the manufacturer's claim is correct.
switch A switch B
fail b fail
0.1
c not fail
a b fail
not fail
c not fail
(a) Write down the values of
(i) a
(ii) b
(iii) c
[2]
(b) Hence find the probability that the generator needs to shut down within one month of the switches being replaced. [1]
The owner of the generator is suspicious of the switch manufacturer's claims, so they look back through the past 200 occasions when the switches were replaced. The records show whether no switches, one switch or two switches had failed.
The data the owner collected are shown in the following table.
No switch fails One switch fails Two switches fail
118 72 10
(c) Perform a ?² goodness of fit test at the 5% significance level to test whether the manufacturer's claims are correct using the following hypotheses.
H?: The manufacturer's claims are correct.
H?: The manufacturer's claims are not both correct.