Q2. (25 points total) Suppose you got a report analyzing the real
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in billion, of Nevada using
AR(2). Below is the result from this autoregressive model:
Estimated Coefficient
Intercept 150.00*
(1 lagged) 0.50**
(2 lagged) -0.10*
Note: *** p<.001, ** p<.01, * p<.05.
Also, below is the table showing Nevada's GDP for the last 5
years:
Year 2022 2021 2020 2019
GDP (in billion) 216.0 200.0 184.0 170.0
(a) Write the estimated form of regression equation. (5 points)
(b) Calculate the value of 3-point moving average (i.e.
MA(3)) in 2022. (5 points)
(c) Forecast the GDP in 2023, 2024, and 2025. (15 points)
03. (40 points total) Use R Studio to answer this question.