Affective polarization refers to the increasing levels of dislike and distrust between members of the Democratic and Republican parties seen in recent years in the United States. Affective polarization is typically measured using a “feelings thermometer” scale which asks people to rate how “cold” versus “warm” their feelings are toward both members of their own party and members of the opposing party and then taking the difference between these two values. Scores on this measure range from 0-100, with higher numbers reflecting more negative attitudes toward members of the opposing party relative to one’s own party (i.e., a higher degree of affective polarization).
A psychologist develops an intervention which she hypothesizes will reduce levels of affective polarization and decides to begin by testing this intervention out on a single person. Following this intervention, the psychologist measures this individual’s level of affective polarization at X = 27. Imagine we know that in the general population (of individuals who have not undergone this intervention), the distribution of affective polarization has \mu
= 40, \sigma
= 10.