Square Error
Moving Average
Exponential Smoothing
Year
(5-year) (3-year)
($W = 0.9$) ($W = 0.3$)
2005
9,025
3,249
784
7,569
2006
6,400
2,209
529
6,561
2007
4,225
1,369
289
5,184
2008
2,500
729
144
3,600
2009
1,225
289
36
2,209
RMSE
Based on the RMSE criterion, which of the forecasting methods is the most accurate?
Exponential smoothing ($w = 0.9$)
Three-year moving average
Five-year moving average
Exponential smoothing ($w = 0.3$)