You are an advisor to the Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs. She asks you to produce a report on the advisability of Canadian troops being sent as part of a U.N. peacekeeping mission to the country of Ruritania. Your research reveals the following details of the situation:
Five years ago, there was a popular revolution that overthrew a military dictatorship. International aid agencies stepped in to help Ruritania build a democratic government based on majority vote, and a market economy open to investors from inside and outside of the country. This political and economic system is now in operation.
There are two main ethnic groups in the country. The Alphans constitute approximately 75% of the population and the Omegans constitute approximately 25%. Despite their smaller numbers, the Omegans tended to dominate the previous government. There is a long history of conflict between these two groups. Both of these groups are tribal groups made up of several clans.
In the post-revolution period, the Omegans have stated their intention to separate from the Alphans and form their own country in the Northern oil rich region, which is their homeland. There has been low-level violence over this issue. Armed militias on both sides have attacked villages in the north and south and have abducted children to fight in their militias.
Recently, the Omegan leadership appears to have been in negotiations with Russia over Russian access to oil in the north.
Four days ago, a massive explosion occurred in Ruritania’s parliament building, killing the Prime Minister (an Alphan) and a number of Alphan and Omegan members of parliament. No one has claimed responsibility and a number of theories are circulating in the press, including:
It is an act of terrorism with each side blaming the other,
It was carried out by Russian agents because of Russia’s interest in the northern oil fields,
It was conducted by a lone, disturbed criminal and should be dealt with as a criminal matter,
It was an accident due to a natural gas leak in the building’s heating system.
The new Prime Minister, an Alphan who is on record as a strong Alphan nationalist, is set to address the nation about this incident within the week.