You work in the healthcare clinic on a college campus with a thriving party culture. Students, parents, administrators, and community members are worried about the rise of hospitalizations due to alcohol poisoning. The campus healthcare clinic’s population health analyst builds a logistic regression model to predict if a student might be at risk for alcohol poisoning for doctors to use with their student patients, so they can provide them with resources and support. The model includes the following variables:
● X1 = Age in years
● X2 = Weight in pounds
● X3 = History of alcohol poisoning (1 = Yes, 0 = No)
● X4 = Binge drank in past 30 days (1=Yes, 0 = No) - defined by CDC as “consuming 5 or more drinks on an occasion for men or 4 or more drinks on an occasion for women”
● X5 = Student athlete (1=Yes, 0 = No)
● X6 = Involved in Greek life (1 = Yes, 0 = No)
The resulting logistic regression model is:
Risk of hospitalization for alcohol poisoning = -0.00347 + 0.029(X1) + -0.003(X2) + 0.3(X3) + 0.43(X4) + -0.89(X5) + 0.79(X6)
a. (4 points) What is the probability a 200 pound, 21 year old who does not have a history of alcohol poisoning, did not binge drink in the last 30 days, is not a student athlete, and is involved in Greek life is hospitalized for alcohol poisoning? Round to one decimal point.
b. (4 points) What is the probability a 120 pound, 21 year old who does have a history of alcohol poisoning, binge drank in the last 30 days, is a student athlete, and is not involved in Greek life is hospitalized for alcohol poisoning? Round to one decimal point.
c. (4 points) What is the probability a 120 pound, 18 year old who does not have a history of alcohol poisoning, binge drank in the last 30 days, is not a student athlete, and is involved in Greek life is hospitalized for alcohol poisoning? Round to one decimal point.
d. (6 points) There are two students who have the exact same value for every variable except that one is 18 and the other is 21. Who has a higher probability of being hospitalized for alcohol poisoning?
e. (6 points) There are two students who have the exact same value for every variable except that one weighs 140 pounds and the other weighs 250 pounds. Who has a higher probability of being hospitalized for alcohol poisoning?