CHALLENGE
ACTIVITY
4.2.1: Bayes' Theorem.
482058.2368878.qx3zqy7
Jump to level 1
One of two biased coins A and B is selected and flipped 3 times. Let A be the event that coin A is selected
and B be the event that coin B is selected, with probabilities p(A) = 0.3 and p(B) = 0.7.
When coin A is flipped, the probability of heads is 0.4.
When coin B is flipped, the probability of heads is 0.6.
Let HHH be the event that the selected coin comes up heads 3 times. Complete the values X, Y, and Z in
Bayes' Theorem to determine the probability coin B was chosen if all 3 flips come up heads.
X
$p(B|HHH) = \frac{\text{Ex: 0.123} \cdot 0.7}{\text{Ex: 0.123} \cdot 0.7 + \text{Ex: 0.123} \cdot 0.3}$
Y
Z
1
Check
Next
2
3
1
2
3
