US Business
Year Quarter Applications
Cars Gas
Total Retail, Excl. Construction Manufacturing
Spending Shipments
6. How good is the fit of this model? What is the statistical significance (p-value) of each of the variables in the
model?
2004.5
574,777
651106 3,031,880
1079445
2004.75
583,203
668403
3,076,193
1119599
2005
610,664
678558
3,184,675
1149637
2005.25
618,094
690012
3,280,249
1171235
2005.5
630,382
708220 3,396,702
1191394
2005.75
642,871
722859
3,517,598
1231411
2006
670,806
737914
3,606,450
1248918
2006.25
669,661
743191
3,546,005
1257795
2006.5
652,251
747034
3,439,586
1251747
2006.75
651,490
745921
3,380,069
1258306
2007
650,811
759001
3,423,573
1283647
SUMMARY OUTPUT
2007.25
661,710
766653
3,475,682
1323805
2007.5
669,253
773296 3,473,105
1333963
Regression Statistics
2007.75
678,039
787969 3,400,540
1378650
Multiple R
0.969314655
2008
639,539
789375 3,311,441
1397341
R Square
0.939570901
2008.25
649,892
804745
3,292,897
1433530
Adjusted R Square
0.936549446
2008.5
636,102
807228 3,216,606
1401781
Standard Error
22849.42799
2008.75
630.516
744481
3,090,131
1215653
Observations
64
2009
600,559
725526 2,910,600
1097425
2009.25
596,991
728027 2,765,032
1070518
ANOVA
2009.5
607,473
739313 2,698,791
1104328
df
SS
MS
2009.75
596,111
748339 2,572,493
1155722
Regression
4.870636+11
1.62354E+11 310.9663757
Significance F
1.66226-36
2010
608,151
759589 2,458,848
1191021
Residual
60
2010.25
614,928
764300 2,475,054
1213450
Total
31325781569 522096359.5
5.18389E+11
2010.5
619,414
764608 2,409,452
1233359
2010.75
621,342
785872 2,394,918
1276799
2011
652.784
803556 2,287,497
1342917
Intercept
85269.08725
2011.25
617,669
821653 2,339,527
1370065
Total Retail, Excl. Cars&Gas
0.589427738
2011.5
631,285
828154 2,417,994
1384240
Total Construction Spending
0.067978016
2011.75
635,376
835323 2,441,795
1399328
Total Value Manufacturing Shipments
-0.08801356
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
34851.09425 2.446668866 0.017365233 15556.51932 154981.6552 15556.51932 154981.6552
0.053861249 10.94344734 6.304028-16 0.481689199 0.697166276 0.481689199 0.697166276
0.006822362 9.964000023 2.449966-14 0.05433126 0.081624772 0.05433126 0.081624772
0.041685793 -2.111356265 0.03891611 -0.17139756 -0.004629559 -0.171.39756 -0.004629559
2012
618,671
851695 2.484.266
1427112
2012.25
643.944
846132 2,550,677
1414772
2012.5
619,285
851322
2,588,248
1414826
2012.75
660,338
862012 2,619,227
1435857
< >
Notes Data Part 1
Part 2 Part 3-6
Part 3-7
Part 4
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