The estimated date of fund exhaustion of the Medicare Trust Fund is so dependent on
assumptions made with regard to economic growth, interest rates, and political changes
because
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? the higher the projected growth rate in wages, the more projected tax revenues for the
fund.
? the higher the projected real interest rate, the better return on the trust fund.
? the higher the projected real interest rate, the lower return on the trust fund.
? the greater numbers of children will produce more tax revenues for the fund.
? the greater numbers of children will produce greater Medicare expenses.
? the higher the projected fertility rate, the greater the projected tax revenues for the fund.
? the higher the projected fertility rate, the greater Medicare expenses.
?
the longer projected life expectancy would be anticipated to create greater Medicare
expenses.
? the longer projected life expectancy would be anticipated to create more tax revenues for
the fund.