The Case Study
EXERCISES
Please complete EXERCISE #1
1. Given the project information below, fill in the reality column with the corresponding values from the network diagram.
Activity Predecessor Duration (days) Pessimistic Time (P) Most Likely Time (M) Optimistic Time (O) Expected Time (TE) Variance (V)
A - 3 4 5 4.33 0.11
B - 2 3 4 3.33 0.11
C A 4 5 6 5.33 0.11
D A 2 3 4 3.33 0.11
E B 3 4 5 4.33 0.11
F C, D 5 6 7 6 0.11
G E, F 4 5 6 5.33 0.11
H G 3 4 5 4.33 0.11
I G 2 3 4 3.33 0.11
J H, I 4 5 6 5.33 0.11
Total number of points: 100
A. What is the expected completion time? (15 pts)
Answer: The expected completion time is 29.33 days.
B. Calculate Variance. (10 pts)
Answer: The variance is 0.11.
C. Draw network and show forward and backward pathway. (20 pts)
Answer: [Insert network diagram here]
D. Determine critical path. (5 pts)
Answer: The critical path is A-C-F-G-H-J.
E. What is the variance of the critical path? (5 pts)
Answer: The variance of the critical path is 0.55.
F. What is the probability of completing in 93 time units? (10 pts)
Answer: [Calculate probability here]
G. What is the probability of taking too long (more than 93 time units)? (5 pts)
Answer: [Calculate probability here]
H. What is the probability of completing 85 time units and getting a bonus? (10 pts)
Answer: [Calculate probability here]
L. What is the probability of completing between 93 and 85 time units? (10 pts)
Answer: [Calculate probability here]
J. How many time units to get to a 95% probability? (10 pts)
Answer: [Calculate time units here]